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Vale ottimo spunto. Vorrei tornare su un passaggio che mi sembra importante. La svolta verde di Obama non ha delle ripercussioni solo sull’economia e sull’ambiente. Per essere realizzata richiede un cambiamento radicale della politica estera finora giocata quasi esclusivamente sotto l’egida dal petrolio (vedi guerra in Iraq). Gli Stati Uniti hanno oggi un bisogno impellente di affrancarsi dai propri fornitori di energia. Allo stesso tempo hanno anche troppi legami economici e politici per poterlo fare su due piedi (investimenti dei paesi arabi nell’economia americana e investimenti delle compagnie petrolifere nei paesi in via di sviluppo). Ho la sensazione che la questione non sia semplicemente quella di mettere pannelli solari e pale eoliche qua e la o di usare un po’ di bio-carburanti in più. Per gli Stati Uniti la green economy è una rivoluzione copernicana. Spero che Obama abbia la forza per iniziare questo cambiamento e che sappia affrontare le “resistenze” dell’economia basata sul petrolio.
Marco
Marco, ha centrato in pieno una tematica assolutamente rilevante da cui non può prescindere la discussione di una politica energetica in America.
Parlare di energia negli US significa parlare di politica estera: lo stato più industrializzato al mondo è assolutamente dipendente da stati tutt’altro che alleati per il rifornimento di energia, situazione che si è sicuramente consolidata durante 8 anni di amministrazione Bush.
Ma soluzioni ci sono e non sono poi così difficili da intraprendere. Lo sviluppo di molte tecnologie pulite è già sufficientemente avanzato tanto che possono essere commercializzate con prezzi quasi concorrenziali rispetto alle tradizionali tecnologie basate su fonti fossili. Inoltre, mentre traghetta la nazione verso questo nuovo paradigma industriale, Obama può puntare anche sull’incremento dello sfruttamento petrolifero sul suolo americano, cosa che contribuirebbe certamente, come dicevi a modificare l’atteggiamento in politica estera della Casa Bianca.
Non resta che aspettare i primi mesi del mandato per capire se il nuovo Mr. President riuscirà a tener fede alle sue promesse su economia, politica estera e ambiente, alla faccia delle sicure resistenze che troverà nella nazione delle Sette Sorelle.
Secondo me Obama ha vinto perchè ha proposto un cambiamento forte, durante la campagna elettorale ha spesso indicato McCain come uno che voleva un cambiamento solo a parole.
Con la globalizzazione si è sempre un po’ in ritardo rispetto all’ottimale servono cambiamenti radicali.
@Valentina: negli US di petrolio ce ne è poco. Usare il vecchio paradigma utilizzando energia pulita porterebbe a una situazione peggiore di quella attuale, vanno ridotti i consumi energetici e di materie prime.
@Caos
Lo stock disponibile di petrolio è da sempre argomento molto discusso, con chi dice che le stime attuali (in America e non) siano sovrastimate, chi dice che siano sottostimate.
Evitando di entrare nel merito di questa discussione, concordo con te con il fatto che l’efficienza energetica sia il modo migliore per ridurre emissioni e dipendenza da fonti fossili ma questo, oltre che essere più difficile da realizzare -necessitando di un cambiamento nell’atteggiamento delle persone-, non è neanche il metodo indicato nel suo programma da Obama per vincere la battaglia contro il global warming. Il motivo principale, secondo me, è il fatto che con rinnovabili e sfruttamento di giacimenti interni Obama vuole “approfittare” anche dell’indotto economico che questi creerebbero per l’economia americana, soprattutto in termini di occupazione.
Detto questo, concordo in pieno con il fatto che, nel medio lungo termine, l’unica soluzione duratura e sostenibile sia quella di ridurre i consumi e aumentare l’energia prodotta da fonti rinnovabili.
Cara Valentina
l’occasione è troppo ghiotta per non parlare di due temi energetici:
1) questione petrolio: molti staranno tirando un sospiro di sollievo nel vedere il prezzo del barile tornare a livelli quasi accettabili. “Lo dicevo io che quei pazzi dei picchisti si sbagliavano” (passatemi la forzatura). In realtà questo prezzo (un’ampia volatilità di prezzo al raggiungimento del picco era stata prevista dai picchisti più esperti) è ancora peggio, perchè sta bloccando tutti gli investimenti per la ricerca di nuovi giacimenti e il rimpiazzo dell’obsoleta infrastruttura petrolifera: vi ricordate le sabbie canadesi, o i giacimenti sottomarini? Beh, oltre a non cambiare sostanzialmente la situazione delle riserve, con questo prezzo del barile non sono nemmeno giustificabili. Il risultato di tutto ciò è che, anche a causa della crisi finanziaria e delle ristrettezze del credito, gli attori del settore petrolifero saranno sempre meno (e quindi un mercato sempre più oligopolisitico), con infrastrutture sempre più datate e, in definitiva, un’offerta sempre più scarsa.
2) L’efficienza energetica è un tema ostico da proporre come spot elettorale, ma non credo che Obama abbia fatto un conto di indotto petrolifero, perchè a quel che mi risulta è piuttosto scarso. Negli usa l’industria estrattiva pesava nel 2000 per solo lo 0,3% del totale occupati, che sono diminuiti del 50% tra il 1980 e il 2000, a fronte di una diminuzione dell’output del 28% (Renner, “Working for the Environment. A growing source of jobs”, WorldWatch Institute). Realizzare una fabbrica di finestre ad alto isolamento o di lampadine ad altissima efficienza al posto di centrali elettriche e linee di trasmissione richiede circa un ammontare di capitale mille volte inferiore per ogni unità di extra comfort (temperatura) o di luce prodotta, e permette di creare
molti più posti di lavoro (Hawken et al., Capitalismo Naturale, 2000). Uno studio effettuato per la città di
Sacramento, California, dimostra che un intervento in grado di risparmiare l’equivalente di 100 Megawatt di capacità produttiva, genera 39 posti di lavoro, rispetto ai 15-20 posti di lavoro richiesti per mettere a disposizione la stessa capacità in una moderna centra a carbone o gas naturale.
Non a caso Obama ha lanciato un obiettivo molto ambizioso: 5 milioni di posti green per fare fronte ala crisi. Può sembrare un obiettivo molto arduo da raggiungere, ma i moltiplicatori che caratterizzano l’ecoefficienza possono essere davvero notevoli. In altre parole, YES WE CAN.
Approfitto per farmi pubblicità: il 25 Novembre in Via Ca’ Marcello 10 presentiamo una ricerca svolta per Ires Veneto sul legame tra sostenibilità, competitività e occupazione in sei casi di aziende venete. Chi è interessato è il benvenuto.
Via Ca’ Marcello a Mestre, naturalmente.
A proposito di Obama e ambiente, vi segnalo un articolo di fondo su la Repubblica di oggi dalla penna di Ian McEwan sul “Green New Deal”, attese, promesse e speranze post elettorali su una nuova direzione per la politica economica (e non solo) americana.
per Vale
un link aiuta a ritrovare il pezzo. ce la fai ad aggiungerlo?
Per qualche ragione Repubblica non pubblica alcuni dei suoi articoli di fondo della versione cartacea anche nel web. Vi lascio comunque il link a un altro sito che riprende l’articolo integrale. http://www.partitodemocratico.it/gw/producer/dettaglio.aspx?ID_DOC=64751
L’economia verde mi puzza un po’, più facile a dirsi che a farsi ma se ci si muove c’è ancora tempo
http://www.ecowashball.it/.
Caos
la palla del tuo link è quella famosa di beppe grillo? (ahimé ora in grave disgrazia..)
s.
[...] le emissioni aumentando considerevolmente i posti di lavoro, lo stesso obiettivo che si è posto Obama in campagna elettorale. I ricercatori di Duke si sono focalizzati su tecnologie come l’illuminazione a LED, la creazione [...]
Con il petrolio che va verso 25-30 $ al barile la prima cosa che la crisi taglierà saranno gli investimenti in efficienza energetica. Le nuove fonti energetiche non penso arriveranno subito anche se ce ne sono molte di promettenti solare, nucleare (non all’uranio), etanolo da alghe o Jatropa Curcas, eolico,… ma ancora da sviluppare. Quando l’economia tenterà di riprendersi un petrolio che schizza verso l’alto rischia di fermare la crescita. Ci vuole tempo per investire in efficienza energetica e nuove fonti di energia e quindi non bisognerebbe smettere e anzi fare qualcosa di più. Speriamo che Obama non cambi idea visto che ormai anche le motorizzazioni ibride non tirano segno che i 160 dollari al barile sono stati archiviati come una semplice bolla speculativa.
Con il petrolio a 25$ anche gli investimenti per mantenere la capacità estrattiva esistente (comunque insufficiente per le previsioni future di consumo) restano al palo. E così si prepara un altro, peggiore, shock energetico. Credo che il picco mondiale di produzione di petrolio sia stato raggiunto negli ultimi due anni.
Breve storia del 21°secolo: il WTO basandosi su teorie non applicabili sulla terra sveglia Cindia che a breve diventa competitiva e a lungo minaccia di scalzare l’occidente e di arrivare a consumi d’oltre oceano. Non contenti di aver sponsorizzato il WTO e affossato Kyoto (sarebbe stato troppo responsabile…) gli US varano la crescita basata sul debito (à la EnronMadoff?) e denaro facile. Scoppia la bolla finanziaria e la soluzione per risollevarsi è la stessa di prima denaro facile! Solo che ora gli US sembrano molto meno solidi e il Dollaro rischia di perdere lo status di moneta di riserva (Sterlina docet).
Che fini strateghi :o. Possiamo quindi continuare ad avere fiducia nelle capacità della mano invisibile, questo mariuolo che riposiziona il proprio portafoglio scommettendo su eventi considerati quasi impossibili e raccoglie tutte le fiche sul tavolo.
Comunque non capisco perchè si premi chi investe in pannelli solari e non si dia nulla al geotermico che è una tecnologia molto più matura, ma anzi magari la si ostacola con regolamenti locali. Se si costruiscono parcheggi a 20 m di profondità, a 100 m si può prendere energia dal suolo senza sbalzi.
Mi sa che in diversi pagherebbero perchè le energie si sviluppino al minomo in modo da sfruttare la rendita da energie fossili.
[...] le imprese ad investire sulla sostenibilità. Sappiamo infatti quanto questa tema, anche dopo le dichiarazioni di Obama ed i documentari di Al Gore, abbia acquistato visibilità e rilevanza sui media a livello [...]