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Ma se i cinesi non fanno più i cinesi e vogliono fare gli Italiani, agli Italiani che cosa resta?
Marco
Non sono poi così meravigliato della notizia. I cinesi sono molto motivati e hanno voglia di imparare, s
Come tutti i paesi in via di sviluppo prima entrano nel mercato mondiale con aziende che cercano una leadership di costo e solo dopo affinano il loro profilo. Come l’entrata del Giappone non si possono escludere che producano contribuiti originali. Chissà, magari il nuovo Takeuchi Ohno…
Non credo, anche se da un lato si stanno avvicinando al gruppo dei paesi sviluppati è difficile che si avvicinino come hanno fatto fino adesso copiando modelli di altri. Evidentemente ne produranno dei nuovi e visti i millenni di secoli che hanno alle spalle probabilmente saranno anche significativi.
Il problema non è nella Cina ma nell’Italia che non è sempre consapovole dei propri vantaggi e svantaggi. La generazione degli -anta vede ancora il proprio paese come un paese manifetturiero e artigiano che si fitta bene con l’immagine che all’estero hanno dell’Italia e con le capacità creative e non che gli italiani hanno.
[...] Proprio mentre lodavo senza mezzi termini le possibilità che il salone del mobile aprirà al sistema Italia, cado rumorosamente dalle nuvole leggendo questo articolo su fisrtdraft. Gli economisti del gruppo TEDIS (di cui faccio parte) sono da sempre attenti alla Cina e la studiano dall’interno, il messaggio che nell’ultimo anno si rinforza è quello di una Cina nuova, la cui competitività non è più legata ai costi ma i lungimiranti e determinatissimi imprenditori con gli occhi a mandorla iniziano a pensare all’ambiente, all’innovazione, al management come attività a valore aggiunto, tocca ora al Vietnam il ruolo del cost killer mondiale, ruolo sempre più demonizzato che ogni Paese sa di dover giocare per iniziare un percorso virtuoso attraente per il capitale straniero ma di certo scomodo per motivi umani e non conveniente a livello economico. La Cina si scrolla di dosso la patina del grande succhiacarbone e scende in massa a Milano per rubare la creatività italiana e rivolgersi a quel mercato interno che le nostre mancanze distributive stanno lasciando cadere. La Cina non è Shangai e Pechino, è molto di più. Fuori da queste due megalopoli l’Italia non c’è perchè non sa come arrivare e non ha ancora capito che non esserci sarà un problema, se un’azienda italiana non sarà presente a ChangSha, qualcuno (cinese) porterà qui il made in Italy live from Milan. [...]
Segnalo un ottimo articolo di David Barboza (NYT) sull’ennesimo scivolone del dollaro sullo Yuan.
Le ragioni indicate dall’articolo sono la volontà di controllare l’inflazione (riducendo il costo delle materie prime acquistate in dollari) e il segnale alle imprese di concentrarsi sul mercato domestico (a scapito dell’export).
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/10/business/yuan.php
s.
Il post di Stefano sulle nuove strategie delle imprese cinesi e l’articolo sul NYT di Barboza sulla rivalutazione Yuan/$, vanno nella stessa direzione: la Cina sta cambiando marcia, e punta decisamente su una maggiore qualità della produzione e allo sviluppo del mercato interno. Per le imprese e i distretti del Made in Italy il messaggio è fin troppo chiaro: è arrivato il momento di investire con molta più convinzione sulle nuove catene del valore che interessano la Cina. Infatti, se fino a qualche tempo fa c’era il timore che l’alta qualità del nostro design venisse sacrificata dalla bassa qualità manifatturiera del Made in China, questo è sempre meno vero. E produrre in Cina diventa conveniente nel momento in cui il mercato interno sta crescendo a ritmi inimmaginabili per ogni altra economia al mondo. Tuttavia, la Cina è una frontiera sulla quale devono investire non solo le imprese, ma anche l’Università e la ricerca scientifica, in particolare quella sociale ed economica. E’ difficile che le imprese sviluppino catene del valore comuni se non si hanno informazioni adeguate sui contesti istituzionali in cui le stesse imprese operano. Costi di transazione elevati, conseguenti a scarsa informazione e fiducia reciproca, rischiano infatti di vanificare i differenziali di produttività che giustificano lo scambio. Per non perdere tali vantaggi, dobbiamo dunque produrre più conoscenza sui processi di integrazione internazionale. Ma con il clima politico che tira oggi in Italia, temo che questi vantaggi siano destinati ad essere lasciati ad altri.
Gian
la scorsa settimana ho incontrato a Shanghai un paio di ricercatori italiani reduci da una lunga serie di interviste con responsabili di stabilimenti e filiali di imprese italiane che hanno consolidato una presenza in Cina. La loro sensazione (abbastanza netta) era che si stia profilando rapidamente una nuova stagione di investimenti: chi vuole davvero sul mercato interno deve iniziare a pensare che questo mercato avrà specificità proprie, un gusto specifico, dinamiche tutte da capire. Difficile immaginare che tutto questo possa essere governato dall’Italia. A termine (a breve termine), saremo chiamati a mandare in Cina responsabili di marketing, comunicatori, analisti di mercato che dovranno fare i conti con la complessità di questo mercato. Le imprese che hanno già un presidio produttivo saranno avvantaggiate, ma le competenze di cui dispongono oggi in Cina non basteranno da sole a garantire il loro successo.
s.
Il dollaro si sta apprezzando perchè la FED sta cercando un alto signoraggio per pagare un po’ di interessi del debito pubblico che negli USA è a più del 400% del PIL e basta una piccola frenata della crescita per mandarlo tutto a rotoli. La FED usa la politica economica molto più per cercare di stabilizzare la produzione che per contrastare l’inflazione come fa la BCE sostenendo che questo trade-off sia così forte anche se…
I mercati si aspettano sul lungo periodo una crescita del PIN UE in media superiore a quella del PIN USA e tassi di interesse decisi dalla BCE in media inferiori a quelli decisi dalla FED. In più l’Euro sta sostituendo il dollaro come moneta di riserva anche alla luce del fatto che avendo meno inflazione è più redditizio, quindi si riduce la domanda di moneta americana.
Poi la Cina a per anni mantenuto un cambio fisso col dollaro anche perchè con quella crescita del PIL non gli costava molto una politica monetaria che stabilizzasse il cambio, in più la crescita, come si sa a parità di politiche statali aumenta il gettito fiscale al netto dei trasfermenti e diminuisce la spesa pubblica per l’assistenza alle persone (che però in Cina è diminuita per altri motivi). Ciò ha permesso alla Cina di diventare creditrice del mondo e in particolare degli USA che con la guerra in Iraq, le spese per la lotta al terrorismo e la promessa di abbassare le tasse devono finanziare un debito pubblico crescente (oltre alla bilancia commerciale in negativo). Questa forza contrattuale le permette di insanguinare il Tibet senza problemi e di stabilire di quanto rivalutare lo Yuan (o Renmibi) rispetto al $. A oggi mi pare che il tasso sia del 2% annuo ma il $ si deprezza anche più velocemente quindi non so se s
Come emerge dai link sotto lo yuan sembra in leggera flessione rispetto all’Euro e in forte apprezzamento rispetto al dollaro.
http://it.finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=CNY&to=USD&amt=1&t=5y
http://it.finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=CNY&to=EUR&amt=1&t=5y
Ma non concordo totalmente con l’articolo che ha citato Stefano più che una visione dinamica di sviluppare il mercato interno mi sembra la costatazione che l’aumento stabile del PIL abbia modificato le aspettative di reddito dei cinesi e quindi i loro consumi, consumando di più aumentano le importazioni. Inoltre la Cina ha fame di crescere e questo comporta un gran consumo di materie prime costose che proprio la crescente domanda di Cina e India hanno fatto schizzare i prezzi aumentando le importazioni. Mi sembra più complicata la spiegazione dell’Herald Tribune, mi sembra che la politica sia sempre nel solco di massimizzare il PIL a medio periodo. Quelli citati nell’articolo mi paiono più cause che effetti.
Non penso che la politica monetaria cinese sia così anticipativa nel puntare sullo sviluppo di aziende innovative che anche se promettenti costituiscono ancora una minoranza
io ho appena finito di leggerlo il libro di tremonti, e mi domando ma chi parla di dazi l’ha letto?